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The Ledger

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DateTickerVerdictPrice thenPrice nowChangevs S&P 500OutcomeAnalysis
Oct 18, 2026DHIwatch$139.36$139.36——openD. R. Horton and the Price of a Cost Moat
Oct 17, 2026CTSHwatch$66.03$66.03——openCognizant and the Cost of a Narrowing Moat
Oct 16, 2026CSXpass$48.69$48.69——pendingCSX Corporation and the Price of an Irreplaceable Network
Oct 15, 2026CPAYpass$406.12$399.92-1.5%-0.5%avoidedCorpay and the Price of a Better Mix
Oct 14, 2026COSTpass$982.58$992.42+1.0%+1.5%missedCostco: A Durable Membership Moat at a Demanding Price
Oct 13, 2026CMCSApass (rubric: circle)$20.90$21.97+5.1%+7.2%missedComcast and the Arithmetic of a Narrowing Moat
Oct 12, 2026CDNSpass$347.87$319.59-8.1%-6.1%avoidedCadence Design Systems and the price of a durable moat
Oct 11, 2026CBOEpass$305.78$314.92+3.0%+5.0%missedCboe Global Markets and the Expensive Tollbooth
Oct 10, 2026AXPpass$307.57$312.58+1.6%+3.7%missedAmerican Express and the Toll Booth’s Asking Price
Oct 9, 2026APHpass$87.25$79.57-8.8%-6.8%avoidedAmphenol and the Price of a Widening Moat
Oct 8, 2026Apass$168.14$172.29+2.5%+4.0%missedAgilent Technologies and the Toll of a Fine Business
Oct 7, 2026AOSwatch$55.34$59.02+6.7%+8.2%openA. O. Smith and the Price of Durable Replacement Demand
Oct 6, 2026PGpass$148.46$159.40+7.4%+9.5%missedProcter & Gamble and the Price of Dependability
Oct 5, 2026KOpass$86.18$93.39+8.4%+9.8%missedCoca-Cola Company (The): A Durable Moat at a Thirsty Price
Oct 4, 2026WMTpass$104.26$118.46+13.6%+14.5%missedWalmart and the Price of Scale
Oct 3, 2026WSTpass$364.89$383.80+5.2%+6.1%missedWest Pharmaceutical Services and the Price of a Durable Seal
Oct 2, 2026WMBpass$70.54$71.31+1.1%+2.0%missedWilliams Companies and the Toll Road at a Full Price
Oct 1, 2026TSCOpass$31.58$33.28+5.4%+5.3%missedTractor Supply and the Cost of a Durable Niche
Sep 30, 2026UNHpass$368.96$402.56+9.1%+9.1%missedUnitedHealth Group: A Strong System at a Weak Yield
Sep 29, 2026TJXpass$133.95$147.01+9.8%+9.9%missedTJX Companies and the Price of a Widening Moat
Sep 28, 2026ROSTpass$236.49$236.99+0.2%+0.4%missedRoss Stores and the Cost of Quality
Sep 27, 2026RMDpass$222.16$238.68+7.4%+8.3%missedResMed and the Price of a Durable Moat
Sep 26, 2026PYPLwatch$54.96$56.95+3.6%+4.5%openPayPal: A Generous Yield Behind a Narrowing Moat
Sep 25, 2026PTCwatch$138.48$192.91+39.3%+40.1%openPTC Inc. and the Narrow Spread
Sep 24, 2026PHMwatch$118.37$113.57-4.1%-3.9%openPulteGroup and the Price of Cyclical Earnings
Sep 23, 2026PCARpass$112.09$111.03-1.0%-0.3%avoidedPaccar and the Price of a Durable Parts Business
Sep 22, 2026OKEpass$90.19$93.25+3.4%+4.6%missedOneok and the Toll Road at a Full Price
Sep 21, 2026ODFLpass$175.36$187.81+7.1%+8.3%missedOld Dominion: A Fine Network at a Full Toll
Sep 20, 2026NSCpass$314.30$325.47+3.6%+3.3%missedNorfolk Southern and the Toll at the Entrance
Sep 19, 2026NVRwatch$6,145.52$5,931.03-3.5%-3.8%openNVR, Inc. and the Discipline of Not Owning Land
Sep 17, 2026MRSHwatch$174.55$187.61+7.5%+7.2%openMarsh McLennan and the Price of a Durable Moat
Sep 16, 2026METApass$673.31$706.91+5.0%+3.9%missedMeta Platforms and the Cost of Defending the Moat
Sep 15, 2026MGRCwatch$110.30$112.50+2.0%+1.6%openMCGRATH RENTCORP: A Useful Network at an Unsettled Price
Sep 14, 2026LULUwatch$100.42$97.16-3.3%-3.6%openLululemon Athletica and the Price of a Narrowing Moat
Sep 13, 2026JBHTpass$270.57$228.79-15.4%-15.0%avoidedJ.B. Hunt and the Toll on a Narrow Moat
Sep 12, 2026HIIpass$279.83$270.57-3.3%-2.9%avoidedHuntington Ingalls Industries and the Price of Indispensability
Sep 11, 2026GDpass$356.69$342.95-3.9%-3.5%avoidedGeneral Dynamics and the Price of Certainty
Sep 6, 2026HIGwatch$138.37$134.81-2.6%-1.6%openHartford: A Fine Business Waiting for a Fault-Tolerant Price
Sep 5, 2026FFIVpass$390.33$443.63+13.7%+14.6%missedF5: A Good Business Standing on the Wrong Side of the Arithmetic
Sep 3, 2026EXPDpass$187.13$195.99+4.7%+6.0%missedExpeditors International: A Fine Business Priced Like an Indestructible One
Sep 3, 2026FASTpass$49.22$51.01+3.6%+5.0%missedFastenal: The Best Bolt in America, Priced Like a Promise
Sep 2, 2026ERIEpass$258.44$243.79-5.7%-5.4%avoidedErie Indemnity: A Tollbooth Without a Discount
Sep 1, 2026DHIpass$141.37$139.36-1.4%-1.6%avoidedD. R. Horton: A Fine Builder at a Price That Isn't
Aug 31, 2026CTSHpass$64.58$66.03+2.3%+2.8%missedCognizant: A Cheap Watch That Must Also Tell the Time
Aug 30, 2026COSTpass$945.47$992.42+5.0%+5.8%missedCostco: A Wonderful Business at the Wrong Price
Aug 30, 2026CPAYpass$407.88$399.92-2.0%-1.1%avoidedCorpay: A Fine Turnstile with a Steep Admission Fee
Aug 30, 2026CSXpass$51.28$48.69-5.0%-4.2%avoidedCSX: A Great Railroad, Priced Like a Lottery Ticket
Aug 29, 2026CMCSApass$27.06$21.97-18.8%-18.0%avoidedComcast: A Toll Road That Can No Longer Raise the Toll
Aug 28, 2026CDNSpass$340.39$319.59-6.1%-5.3%avoidedCadence Design Systems: The Pickaxe Worth Admiring, Not Overpaying For
Aug 27, 2026CBOEpass$313.95$314.92+0.3%+1.4%missedCboe Global Markets: A Fine Exchange at the Wrong Price
Aug 26, 2026AXPpass$336.15$312.58-7.0%-6.6%avoidedAmerican Express: A Wonderful Business Priced as If It Were a Wonderful Investment
Aug 25, 2026APHpass$79.39$79.57+0.2%+0.6%missedAmphenol: A Great Business Wearing an Awkward Price Tag
Aug 24, 2026AOSpass$62.74$59.02-5.9%-5.9%avoidedA. O. Smith: Hot Water, Cold Price
Aug 23, 2026Apass$159.00$172.29+8.4%+8.7%missedAgilent Technologies: Excellent Business, Impolite Price
Aug 22, 2026PGpass$144.68$159.40+10.2%+10.5%missedProcter & Gamble: A Perfect Business at an Imperfect Price
Aug 21, 2026WMTwatch$103.70$118.46+14.2%+14.6%openWalmart: A 9% Drop and Still No Margin of Safety
Aug 17, 2026MGRCwatch$121.04$112.50-7.1%-5.8%openMcGrath RentCorp: A Rentable Business at an Unrentable Price
Aug 9, 2026HIGwatch$143.34$134.81-6.0%—openHartford: A Genuine Moat Priced at Its Own Estimate
Jul 16, 2026Awatch$136.07$172.29+26.6%—openAgilent: A Widening Moat Priced as if It Were Already Widest
Jul 16, 2026AOSwatch$60.31$59.02-2.2%—openA. O. Smith: A Fine Business Waiting for a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026APHwatch$153.40$79.57-48.1%—openAmphenol: A Wonderful Business at a Price That Already Believes
Jul 16, 2026AXPwatch$361.56$312.58-13.6%—openAmerican Express: A Fine Business Standing Behind a Tall Wall of Price
Jul 16, 2026CBOEwatch$277.84$314.92+13.4%—openCboe Global Markets: An Exclusive License, Priced Like There's No Ceiling
Jul 16, 2026CDNSwatch$364.99$319.59-12.4%—openCadence Design Systems: A Great Business Waiting on a Better Price
Jul 16, 2026CMCSApass—$21.97——pendingComcast: A Wide Discount on a Narrowing Moat
Jul 16, 2026COSTwatch$945.57$992.42+5.0%—openCostco: A Wonderful Business at a Price That Already Spent the Decade
Jul 16, 2026CPAYwatch$373.13$399.92+7.2%—openCorpay: A Good Business Waiting at the Wrong Price
Jul 16, 2026CSXwatch$50.79$48.69-4.1%—openCSX: A Fine Railroad, Priced for a Takeover That Hasn't Happened
Jul 16, 2026CTSHpass—$66.03——pendingCognizant: A Good Price for a Shrinking Moat
Jul 16, 2026DHIwatch$154.41$139.36-9.8%—openD. R. Horton: A Wide Moat Built on Endurance, Priced for Perfection
Jul 16, 2026ERIEwatch$226.51$243.79+7.6%—openErie Indemnity: A Fine Fee Machine That Still Costs Too Much
Jul 16, 2026EXPDwatch$181.50$195.99+8.0%—openExpeditors International: A Fine Business Waiting on a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026FASTwatch$46.47$51.01+9.8%—openFastenal: Excellent Business, Reverse Margin of Safety
Jul 16, 2026FFIVwatch$401.53$443.63+10.5%—openF5, Inc.: A Real Moat Priced as If It Were Larger
Jul 16, 2026GDwatch$367.67$342.95-6.7%—openGeneral Dynamics: A Fine Business Waiting for a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026HIGwatch$136.16$134.81-1.0%—openThe Hartford: An Excellent Insurer Priced Like One
Jul 16, 2026HIIwatch$270.79$270.57-0.1%—openHuntington Ingalls: A Monopoly That Can't Raise Prices
Jul 16, 2026JBHTwatch$298.41$228.79-23.3%—openJ.B. Hunt: A Narrow Moat Quoted Like a Wide One
Jul 16, 2026KOwatch$84.59$93.39+10.4%—openCoca-Cola: A Wonderful Company at an Unwonderful Price
Jul 16, 2026LULUpass—$97.16——pendingLululemon: When Full Price Stops Working
Jul 16, 2026METAwatch$663.29$706.91+6.6%—openMeta Platforms: A Widening Moat Priced Past Its Own Arithmetic
Jul 16, 2026MRSHwatch$182.18$187.61+3.0%—openMarsh McLennan: A Wonderful Broker at an Uncomfortable Price
Jul 16, 2026NSCwatch$339.30$325.47-4.1%—openNorfolk Southern: A Fine Railroad Priced as a Done Deal
Jul 16, 2026NVRwatch$6,706.52$5,931.03-11.6%—openNVR: The Builder That Refuses to Own the Dirt
Jul 16, 2026ODFLwatch$237.15$187.81-20.8%—openOld Dominion: A Fortress Priced Like a Miracle
Jul 16, 2026OKEwatch$93.01$93.25+0.3%—openOneok: A Good Business Standing Above Its Value
Jul 16, 2026PCARwatch$126.67$111.03-12.4%—openPaccar: A Wonderful Business Standing Outside the Buying Range
Jul 16, 2026PGwatch$150.78$159.40+5.7%—openProcter & Gamble: A Perfect Business at an Imperfect Price
Jul 16, 2026PHMwatch$129.04$113.57-12.0%—openPulteGroup: A Good Capital Allocator, Priced for a Boom That's Ending
Jul 16, 2026PTCwatch$127.38$192.91+51.4%—openPTC: A Fine Moat That the Market Has Stopped Discounting
Jul 16, 2026PYPLpass—$56.95——pendingPayPal: Cheap, But the Moat Is Narrowing
Jul 16, 2026RMDwatch$201.99$238.68+18.2%—openResMed: A Wide Moat Priced Beyond Its Worth
Jul 16, 2026ROSTwatch$232.21$236.99+2.1%—openRoss Stores: A Bargain Business at a Full Price
Jul 16, 2026TJXwatch$154.99$147.01-5.2%—openTJX: A Wonderful Business Asking a Difficult Price
Jul 16, 2026TSCOwatch$31.03$33.28+7.3%—openTractor Supply: The Moat Is Real, the Price Tag Is Not
Jul 16, 2026UNHwatch$423.67$402.56-5.0%—openUnitedHealth Group: Excellent Business, Absent Margin of Safety
Jul 16, 2026WMBwatch$74.86$71.31-4.7%—openWilliams Companies: A Tollgate Worth Watching, Not Yet Touching
Jul 16, 2026WSTwatch$362.92$383.80+5.8%—openWest Pharmaceutical Services: A Wider Moat at the Wrong Price

Grading is automatic — simple price returns, computed by the pipeline, not curated. Past results say nothing about future ones. Full ledger and methodology · Disclaimer

Desk stance 100% cash since 2026-09-02 — the desk's real allocation, disclosed as percentages only.

Latest Analysis

watch
D. R. Horton and the Price of a Cost Moat
DHI · Oct 18, 2026

I examine D. R. Horton’s cost moat, cyclical earning power, and valuation, concluding that the shares remain a watch.

watch
Cognizant and the Cost of a Narrowing Moat
CTSH · Oct 17, 2026

I examine Cognizant’s cash earning power against its AI-exposed moat and conclude that the valuation belongs on watch.

pass
CSX Corporation and the Price of an Irreplaceable Network
CSX · Oct 16, 2026

I examine CSX’s durable rail network, recovery case, and valuation; the owner-earnings arithmetic leaves the shares a pass.

Latest Letters

Letter
Fifty-Five Names Above the Line, and a Price That Measures Nothing
Oct 16, 2026

Fifty-five of 142 names sit above the 5.09% ten-year line; ANET's fall and VRTS's measured yield, read as position rather than forecast.

Letter
A lower price earns a comparison, not a conclusion
Oct 15, 2026

The thermometer is steady, while SMCI and FN show why a falling price must still answer to owner earnings.

Letter
A falling price improves the yield, not the proof
Oct 14, 2026

The thermometer remains selective, while SMCI and DOCS show why price movement is not the same as value.

32 letters on the ledger · All letters

Watchlist at a Glance

Names on the ledger
142
Status: watch
142
Avg. owner-earnings yield
5.3%

Updated Oct 18, 2026, 11:30 UTC · Full watchlist

Latest Screen

Run of Oct 12, 2026 over S&P500 — 42 passed.

TickerNameROE 5yFCF yieldP/E
TJX TJX Companies 56.6% 3.1% 25.7
ROST Ross Stores 37.8% 2.6% 26.9
EXPD Expeditors International 37.3% 3.2% 28.1
CTAS Cintas 37.2% 2.6% 39.9
DECK Deckers Brands 34.8% 9.0% 11.7
LULU Lululemon Athletica 34.6% 12.7% 7.8
ROL Rollins, Inc. 34.4% 4.1% 29.1
FAST Fastenal 32.6% 2.0% 43.4
AXP American Express 32.5% 4.9% 18.7
CPAY Corpay 31.3% 4.2% 24.2
FDS FactSet 30.7% 6.3% 19.7
PG Procter & Gamble 30.4% 4.2% 22.8
ODFL Old Dominion 29.3% 2.6% 35.0
MRSH Marsh McLennan 28.8% 5.0% 21.6
COST Costco 27.6% 1.3% 45.6
META Meta Platforms 27.5% 0.5% 27.1
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC 27.3% 1.8% 36.3
ANET Arista Networks 26.9% 1.3% 68.4
CSCO Cisco 25.8% 2.7% 35.6
AOS A. O. Smith 25.6% 7.3% 15.7
ERIE Erie Indemnity 24.9% 4.4% 20.1
PHM PulteGroup 24.6% 10.3% 11.4
DHI D. R. Horton 22.6% 9.4% 12.9
RMD ResMed 22.5% 4.8% 22.1
A Agilent Technologies 21.7% 2.5% 33.6
MNST Monster Beverage Corp 21.2% 2.2% 40.4
SMCI Supermicro 21.2% 7.7% 12.8
WST West Pharmaceutical Services 20.9% 1.5% 46.9
PCAR Paccar 20.8% 3.6% 22.7
TEL TE Connectivity 20.2% 2.8% 21.4
JBHT J.B. Hunt 19.9% 2.7% 32.6
PYPL PayPal 19.5% 11.2% 10.4
CPRT Copart 19.1% 5.4% 17.6
WMT Walmart 18.7% 1.1% 40.1
GD General Dynamics 17.2% 4.4% 20.2
RJF Raymond James Financial 17.0% 7.0% 13.8
CTSH Cognizant 16.6% 9.3% 12.9
HIG Hartford (The) 16.4% 11.0% 9.2
CBOE Cboe Global Markets 16.0% 3.6% 23.7
LEN Lennar 15.8% 11.1% 14.5
FFIV F5, Inc. 15.7% 2.7% 36.8
PTC PTC Inc. 15.4% 3.9% 18.9

All screen results and history

Sentinel — Recent Events

SNEX drawdown SNEX is now well below its watchlist reference price; the desk logged the drawdown.
WMB price_drop Sharp one-session drop on WMB; the desk logged it and the verdict stands until re-read.
VRTS drawdown VRTS is now well below its watchlist reference price; the desk logged the drawdown.
STRL price_drop Sharp one-session drop on STRL; the desk logged it and the verdict stands until re-read.
SFM margin_zone SFM's owner-earnings yield crossed into the margin-of-safety zone; the desk logged it.

Full event log