MoatLedger Wonderful companies at fair prices. A ledger, kept patiently.

The Ledger

Every verdict on this site is dated, priced, and graded in public. Including the wrong ones. Most commentary asks you to remember the wins; a ledger remembers everything.

DateTickerVerdictPrice thenPrice nowChangeAnalysis
Aug 21, 2026WMTwatch$103.83$106.43+2.5%Walmart: A 9% Drop and Still No Margin of Safety
Aug 17, 2026MGRCwatchMcGrath RentCorp: A Rentable Business at an Unrentable Price
Aug 9, 2026HIGwatch$143.34$137.20-4.3%Hartford: A Genuine Moat Priced at Its Own Estimate
Jul 16, 2026Awatch$136.07$150.90+10.9%Agilent: A Widening Moat Priced as if It Were Already Widest
Jul 16, 2026AOSwatch$60.31$59.17-1.9%A. O. Smith: A Fine Business Waiting for a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026APHwatch$153.40$158.99+3.6%Amphenol: A Wonderful Business at a Price That Already Believes
Jul 16, 2026AXPwatch$361.56$325.83-9.9%American Express: A Fine Business Standing Behind a Tall Wall of Price
Jul 16, 2026CBOEwatch$277.84$306.17+10.2%Cboe Global Markets: An Exclusive License, Priced Like There's No Ceiling
Jul 16, 2026CDNSwatch$364.99$320.89-12.1%Cadence Design Systems: A Great Business Waiting on a Better Price
Jul 16, 2026CMCSApassComcast: A Wide Discount on a Narrowing Moat
Jul 16, 2026COSTwatch$945.57$943.96-0.2%Costco: A Wonderful Business at a Price That Already Spent the Decade
Jul 16, 2026CPAYwatch$373.13$403.99+8.3%Corpay: A Good Business Waiting at the Wrong Price
Jul 16, 2026CSXwatch$50.79$48.59-4.3%CSX: A Fine Railroad, Priced for a Takeover That Hasn't Happened
Jul 16, 2026CTSHpassCognizant: A Good Price for a Shrinking Moat
Jul 16, 2026DHIwatch$154.41$142.50-7.7%D. R. Horton: A Wide Moat Built on Endurance, Priced for Perfection
Jul 16, 2026ERIEwatch$226.51$255.96+13.0%Erie Indemnity: A Fine Fee Machine That Still Costs Too Much
Jul 16, 2026EXPDwatch$181.50$189.65+4.5%Expeditors International: A Fine Business Waiting on a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026FASTwatch$46.47$48.90+5.2%Fastenal: Excellent Business, Reverse Margin of Safety
Jul 16, 2026FFIVwatch$401.53$393.30-2.1%F5, Inc.: A Real Moat Priced as If It Were Larger
Jul 16, 2026GDwatch$367.67$368.64+0.3%General Dynamics: A Fine Business Waiting for a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026HIGwatch$136.16$137.20+0.8%The Hartford: An Excellent Insurer Priced Like One
Jul 16, 2026HIIwatch$270.79$291.91+7.8%Huntington Ingalls: A Monopoly That Can't Raise Prices
Jul 16, 2026JBHTwatch$298.41$259.65-13.0%J.B. Hunt: A Narrow Moat Quoted Like a Wide One
Jul 16, 2026KOwatch$84.59$88.59+4.7%Coca-Cola: A Wonderful Company at an Unwonderful Price
Jul 16, 2026LULUpassLululemon: When Full Price Stops Working
Jul 16, 2026METAwatch$663.29$582.92-12.1%Meta Platforms: A Widening Moat Priced Past Its Own Arithmetic
Jul 16, 2026MRSHwatch$182.18$188.46+3.5%Marsh McLennan: A Wonderful Broker at an Uncomfortable Price
Jul 16, 2026NSCwatch$339.30$334.23-1.5%Norfolk Southern: A Fine Railroad Priced as a Done Deal
Jul 16, 2026NVRwatch$6,706.52$6,309.92-5.9%NVR: The Builder That Refuses to Own the Dirt
Jul 16, 2026ODFLwatch$237.15$191.18-19.4%Old Dominion: A Fortress Priced Like a Miracle
Jul 16, 2026OKEwatch$93.01$95.44+2.6%Oneok: A Good Business Standing Above Its Value
Jul 16, 2026PCARwatch$126.67$123.10-2.8%Paccar: A Wonderful Business Standing Outside the Buying Range
Jul 16, 2026PGwatch$150.78$147.71-2.0%Procter & Gamble: A Perfect Business at an Imperfect Price
Jul 16, 2026PHMwatch$129.04$125.16-3.0%PulteGroup: A Good Capital Allocator, Priced for a Boom That's Ending
Jul 16, 2026PTCwatch$127.38$153.49+20.5%PTC: A Fine Moat That the Market Has Stopped Discounting
Jul 16, 2026PYPLpassPayPal: Cheap, But the Moat Is Narrowing
Jul 16, 2026RMDwatch$201.99$233.31+15.5%ResMed: A Wide Moat Priced Beyond Its Worth
Jul 16, 2026ROSTwatch$232.21$228.67-1.5%Ross Stores: A Bargain Business at a Full Price
Jul 16, 2026TJXwatch$154.99$134.08-13.5%TJX: A Wonderful Business Asking a Difficult Price
Jul 16, 2026UNHwatch$423.67$394.15-7.0%UnitedHealth Group: Excellent Business, Absent Margin of Safety
Jul 16, 2026WMBwatch$74.86$74.85-0.0%Williams Companies: A Tollgate Worth Watching, Not Yet Touching
Jul 16, 2026WSTwatch$362.92$340.56-6.2%West Pharmaceutical Services: A Wider Moat at the Wrong Price

Grading is automatic against a hypothetical model portfolio; no real positions, and past results say nothing about future ones. Full ledger and methodology · Disclaimer

Latest Analysis

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Walmart: A 9% Drop and Still No Margin of Safety

A four-gate review of Walmart after a sharp earnings-day selloff: knowable business, real moat, unproven price.

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McGrath RentCorp: A Rentable Business at an Unrentable Price

A four-gate review of McGrath RentCorp: knowable leasing economics, an unproven moat, watchable management — and a price that offers no margin of safety.

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Hartford: A Genuine Moat Priced at Its Own Estimate

A look at why The Hartford's small-business moat earns a watch verdict: real pricing power, but the price leaves no room for reserve-era error.

Watchlist at a Glance

Names on the ledger
139
Status: watch
139
Avg. owner-earnings yield
3.7%

Updated Sep 1, 2026, 16:18 UTC · Full watchlist

Latest Screen

Run of Aug 31, 2026 over S&P500 — 39 passed.

TickerNameROE 5yFCF yieldP/E
TJX TJX Companies 56.6%
ROST Ross Stores 37.8%
EXPD Expeditors International 37.3%
DECK Deckers Brands 34.8%
LULU Lululemon Athletica 34.6%
ROL Rollins, Inc. 34.4%
FAST Fastenal 32.6%
AXP American Express 32.5%
CPAY Corpay 31.3%
FDS FactSet 30.7%
PG Procter & Gamble 30.6%
ODFL Old Dominion 29.3%
MRSH Marsh McLennan 28.8%
COST Costco 28.2%
META Meta Platforms 27.5%
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC 27.3%
ANET Arista Networks 26.9%
AOS A. O. Smith 25.6%
ERIE Erie Indemnity 24.9%
PHM PulteGroup 24.6%
DHI D. R. Horton 22.6%
A Agilent Technologies 21.7%
MNST Monster Beverage Corp 21.2%
RMD ResMed 21.2%
CPRT Copart 21.2%
WST West Pharmaceutical Services 20.9%
PCAR Paccar 20.8%
TEL TE Connectivity 20.2%
JBHT J.B. Hunt 19.9%
PYPL PayPal 19.5%
WMT Walmart 18.7%
GD General Dynamics 17.2%
RJF Raymond James Financial 17.0%
CTSH Cognizant 16.6%
HIG Hartford (The) 16.4%
CBOE Cboe Global Markets 16.0%
LEN Lennar 15.8%
FFIV F5, Inc. 15.7%
PTC PTC Inc. 15.4%

All screen results and history

Sentinel — Recent Events

WMT price_drop Alert triggered on WMT; the desk filed a same-day review and recorded its verdict.
CDNS price_drop Alert triggered on CDNS; the desk filed a same-day review and recorded its verdict.
META price_drop Alert triggered on META; the desk filed a same-day review and recorded its verdict.

Full event log