Analysis
One business a day, read the old-fashioned way: what it earns for its owners, what protects those earnings, and what we would pay for them.
- watch
I examine D. R. Horton’s cost moat, cyclical earning power, and valuation, concluding that the shares remain a watch.
- watch
I examine Cognizant’s cash earning power against its AI-exposed moat and conclude that the valuation belongs on watch.
- pass
I examine CSX’s durable rail network, recovery case, and valuation; the owner-earnings arithmetic leaves the shares a pass.
- pass
I examine Corpay’s improving payments mix, embedded workflow moat, leverage, and valuation, and conclude that the price warrants a pass.
- pass
Costco’s membership moat remains formidable, but its owner-earnings yield does not justify the current valuation.
- pass
I examine Comcast’s unusually cheap arithmetic and conclude that weakening pricing power and capital allocation still warrant a pass.
- pass
Cadence has a durable EDA moat, but its 1.23% owner-earnings yield and large valuation premium make the shares a pass.
- pass
I examine Cboe’s licensed exchange moat, earning power and valuation, concluding that quality is already amply priced.
- pass
I examine American Express’s premium membership moat and conclude that its quality is already more than reflected in the valuation.
- pass
I examine Amphenol’s widening connector moat and acquisition record, but conclude that the price still fails the yield test.
- pass
I examine Agilent’s recurring laboratory economics and conclude that business quality cannot overcome the present valuation.
- watch
I examine A. O. Smith’s replacement-driven moat, resilient cash economics, and valuation, concluding that the shares belong on watch.
- pass
I examine Procter & Gamble’s durable consumer franchise and conclude that its valuation offers no margin of safety.
- pass
I examine Coca-Cola’s durable brand-and-distribution moat and conclude that its modest owner-earnings yield leaves no margin of safety.
- pass
Walmart’s scale and digital layers remain formidable, but a 1.15% owner-earnings yield leaves the shares a pass.
- pass
West has durable regulatory switching costs, but its owner-earnings yield leaves no valuation shelter.
- pass
I examine Williams’s pipeline moat, ambitious expansion plan, and valuation, concluding that a fine asset still lacks a margin of safety.
- pass
I examine Tractor Supply’s rural retail moat and conclude that its durable economics are not matched by today’s valuation.
- pass
I examine UnitedHealth’s integrated healthcare moat and conclude that its measured earning power offers no valuation cushion.
- pass
I examine TJX’s purchasing moat, earning power and capital allocation, but find its valuation offers no margin of safety.
- pass
Ross Stores has a durable cost advantage and productive growth, but its owner-earnings yield makes the valuation difficult to defend.
- pass
I examine ResMed’s recurring model, data moat, capital allocation, and a valuation that still offers no margin of safety.
- watch
I weigh PayPal’s attractive owner-earnings yield against a weakening checkout moat and conclude that the shares remain a watch.
- watch
PTC’s switching-cost moat is intact, but a thin yield spread and a 21% premium to stated value keep it on watch.
- watch
I examine PulteGroup’s land-light model, capital allocation, and cyclical earnings, and conclude that the valuation belongs on watch.
- pass
Paccar has durable brands, parts economics, and disciplined capital allocation, but its valuation offers no margin of safety.
- pass
I examine Oneok’s durable pipeline network, capital intensity and owner-earnings yield, concluding that its valuation remains a pass.
- pass
I examine Old Dominion’s network moat, disciplined economics, and a valuation that leaves the verdict at pass.
- pass
I examine Norfolk Southern’s durable rail moat, transaction risk, earning power, and valuation, concluding that the current price merits a pass.
- watch
I examine NVR’s land-light economics, capital allocation, cyclical pressures, and valuation, concluding that the shares belong on watch.
- watch
I examine Marsh McLennan’s brokerage moat, AI exposure, capital allocation, and narrow yield advantage, concluding that it remains a watch.
- pass
Meta retains a formidable advertising moat, but uncertain AI economics and a thin owner-earnings yield make the valuation unappealing.
- watch
I examine McGrath’s repeat rentals, capital intensity and 8.07% yield, concluding that the valuation belongs on watch.
- watch
I examine Lululemon’s shrinking brand moat, tempting owner-earnings yield, and absent margin of safety, concluding it remains a watch.
- pass
J.B. Hunt has a credible intermodal moat and disciplined capital allocation, but its owner-earnings yield makes the valuation a pass.
- pass
I examine HII’s protected naval franchise, uneven cash economics, and a valuation that leaves the shares a pass.
- pass
General Dynamics has a widening defense moat and disciplined management, but its valuation leaves no margin of safety.
- watch
Examining Hartford's durable small-business insurance moat against its normalized earnings yield and finding a quality business priced for perfection.
- pass
F5's moat and margins hold up, but at a $22.2 billion market cap the owner-earnings yield of 3.34% sits below the 4.78% Treasury — no margin of safety, so I pass.
- pass
An examination of Fastenal's embedded supply model and disciplined capital allocation, concluding that a 2.14% owner-earnings yield is a reverse margin of safety.
- pass
Expeditors is a disciplined, debt-free freight forwarder, but at a 3.33% owner-earnings yield its price already assumes more than the moat delivers.
- pass
A look at Erie Indemnity's tollbooth moat, fee-driven earning power, and why a 42% decline still leaves no margin of safety.
- pass
D. R. Horton runs a disciplined, buyback-heavy homebuilding machine, but at fourteen times earnings into a downcycle the margin of safety hasn't arrived.
- pass
An examination of Cognizant's narrowing moat, disciplined capital returns, and tempting valuation — concluding that apparent cheapness may not be cheap enough.
- pass
Costco's membership moat and steady earning power examined against a 46.9x P/E, concluding the margin of safety is not thin but absent.
- pass
A value examination of Corpay's durable payment tollbooth, its quiet capital discipline, and why the current price leaves too little margin of safety.
- pass
An examination of CSX's durable network moat and why its owner-earnings yield falls far short of justifying today's price.
- pass
Comcast's 15.9% ROE and double-digit owner-earnings yield look tempting, but a shrinking subscriber base and heavy debt mean it is cheap-looking, not cheap.
- pass
Cadence's design-tool moat is real and its fundamentals are excellent, but at 69x earnings the margin of safety is negative, so we pass.
- pass
An examination of Cboe's exclusive SPX and VIX franchise, its earning power, and why the arithmetic says the safety margin is absent.
- pass
A durable fee-based moat meets a price that already pays for it: why American Express earns admiration but not a purchase at $335.95.
- pass
Amphenol's connector moat and capital discipline are real, but at today's market cap the margin of safety is not thin — it is negative.
- pass
A value check on A. O. Smith: a durable replacement-demand moat in North America, solid returns, but a price running ahead of intrinsic value.
- pass
A look at Agilent's installed-base moat and steady returns, and why a 2.6% owner earnings yield against 4.74% Treasury yields earns a pass.
- pass
An examination of P&G's exceptional moat and capital returns, and why a large premium to conservative intrinsic value leads to a pass.
- watch
A four-gate review of Walmart after a sharp earnings-day selloff: knowable business, real moat, unproven price.
- watch
A four-gate review of McGrath RentCorp: knowable leasing economics, an unproven moat, watchable management — and a price that offers no margin of safety.
- watch
A look at why The Hartford's small-business moat earns a watch verdict: real pricing power, but the price leaves no room for reserve-era error.
- watch
Walking Agilent through four gates: a predictable, regulated-lab franchise passes the first three, but fails the fourth on price.
- watch
Walking Costco through four gates — knowable, moated, well-run — to the only gate it fails: price.
- pass
Walking Comcast through four gates — knowability, moat, management, price — and concluding the cheapness is not the same thing as value.
- watch
Walking Cboe through four gates: a near-perfect business with an exclusive index license — and a market price that leaves nothing for the buyer.
- watch
Walking American Express through four gates — business, moat, management, price — the first three pass easily and the fourth does not.
- watch
Walking Amphenol through four gates: a widening moat and disciplined management, undone by a valuation that pays for the AI cycle in full.
- watch
Walking A. O. Smith through four gates: a durable moat and disciplined management, undone — for now — by a price that offers no margin of safety.
- watch
Walking Cadence through four gates — knowable business, wide moat, decent management, and a price that fails the test.
- watch
Corpay clears the quality gates on moat and management, but at a $23.7B market cap against a $15–19B intrinsic value estimate, the margin of safety is absent.
- watch
CSX passes three of four gates on moat quality, but an acquisition-expectation premium leaves no margin of safety. Watch.
- pass
Cognizant passes on quality metrics and price, but the moat is narrowing: AI targets the very labor arbitrage the business rests on, so we pass.
- watch
A four-gate review of EXPD finds disciplined management and a network moat, but a price that leaves no margin of safety.
- watch
Walking Fastenal through four gates: knowable, moated, well-run — but at a P/E of 38.8 and a 2.3% owner-earnings yield, price fails.
- watch
Walking D. R. Horton through four value gates: a knowable cyclical business, a cost-based moat, exemplary capital allocation, and no margin of safety at current prices.
- watch
Erie Indemnity earns fees on nearly a century of contractual lock-in, but after a 42% decline the price still offers no margin of safety.
- watch
Walking General Dynamics through four gates: an exceptional moat and management, but a price that has already spent the supercycle.
- watch
Walking The Hartford through four gates: a durable small-business insurance moat and disciplined management, undone only by a price that offers no margin of safety.
- watch
A four-gate examination of F5's switching-cost moat, disciplined management, and a price that leaves no margin of safety.
- watch
HII owns the surest monopoly in American shipbuilding, but a monopsony customer and a rich price leave no margin of safety.
- watch
A gate-by-gate review of J.B. Hunt finds a real but narrow intermodal moat, sound management, and no margin of safety at the current price.
- watch
A four-gate examination of Marsh McLennan's brokerage moat and the AI debate, concluding the business passes but the price does not.
- watch
Walking the four gates on Norfolk Southern: a durable eastern duopoly moat, patched-over governance, and a price anchored to a merger, not the business.
- watch
Walking Coca-Cola through four gates: the business, the moat, management, and price — three pass cleanly, the fourth does not.
- watch
Walking Meta through four gates: a knowable business, a widening moat, candid management — and a price gate that fails on the unproven AI capital bet.
- pass
A four-gate walk through Lululemon's deteriorating pricing power: knowable brand, shrinking moat, adequate price cannot offset an eroding moat.
- watch
Walking NVR through four gates: a durable capital-light moat, textbook capital allocation, and a price that still offers no margin of safety.
- watch
Walking Oneok through four gates: a durable fee-based pipeline moat, disciplined management, and a price that still offers no margin of safety.
- watch
A four-gate walk through Old Dominion Freight Line: a wide moat and disciplined operators undermined by a price that already assumes perfection.
- watch
A four-gate review of P&G finds brand, scale, and discipline intact — but at 23x owner earnings, the margin of safety is simply absent.
- watch
Walking Paccar through four gates — a durable parts moat and disciplined management, undone for now by a price that already assumes recovery.
- watch
A four-gate walk through ResMed's razor-and-blades model, data flywheel, and disciplined management — and why the price still fails the final gate.
- watch
A gate-by-gate examination of PTC's switching-cost moat and disciplined management, concluding that the business clears every test except price.
- pass
A gate-by-gate look at PayPal: real network, thinning moat, shaky management, and a price that is cheap without being safe.
- watch
Walking TJX through the four gates: a widening moat and exemplary management, undone by a price that already assumes everything goes right.
- watch
A four-gate review of PulteGroup finds strong management and a narrow moat, but cycle-peak earnings leave no margin of safety at today's price.
- watch
A gates-based review of Ross Stores: a genuine low-cost moat and disciplined management, but a market price that leaves no margin of safety.
- watch
Walking UnitedHealth through four gates: a knowable business, a real but pressured moat, aligned management — and no margin of safety at roughly $420.
- watch
A four-gate review of Tractor Supply finds knowable demand, a partial moat, and disciplined management — but no margin of safety at today's price.
- watch
A four-gate review of Williams Companies: a widening moat and disciplined operator, undone by a price that already pays for everything to go right.
- watch
A four-gate review of West Pharmaceutical: a widening regulatory moat and clean operations, undermined by a disclosure lapse and a demanding price.