VRTS Clears the Yield Line; JBHT Does Not

Published Sep 18, 2026

To the readers of MoatLedger:

The market thermometer is unchanged from its 2026-09-17 reading. Across the 141 companies with an owner-earnings snapshot, the median owner-earnings yield is 4.37%, below the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.95% but above the 3-month Treasury bill yield of 3.96%. There are 59 companies above the 10-year line, while 45 sit in the margin zone. This is neither a barren field nor a generous one. The median company still asks me to accept less measured owner earnings than the 10-year Treasury offers in yield. That calls for discrimination rather than haste. A thermometer describes the temperature; it does not instruct me to remove my coat.

The 59 names above the 10-year line deserve examination, not automatic approval. A yield screen can reveal where price and measured owner earnings have become interesting, but it cannot tell me whether those earnings are durable, whether the capital structure is sound, or whether an intrinsic-value estimate leaves a satisfactory discount. Those matters were not measured here. The screen narrows the work. It does not perform it.

VRTS and JBHT stood out over the past five sessions because their prices fell sharply while their measured owner-earnings positions remained very different. VRTS declined 12.85%, from $147.41 on 2026-09-11 to $128.47 on 2026-09-17. JBHT declined 12.44%, from $270.45 to $236.80 over the same dates. The market supplied similar commotion. The arithmetic supplied dissimilar conclusions.

For VRTS, the owner-earnings snapshot dated 2026-08-24 records roughly $192.7 million of owner earnings. Set against the current market capitalization of about $864.1 million, that produces an owner-earnings yield of 22.3%. The yield stands well above the 10-year Treasury line of 4.95% and also above the sample median of 4.37%. On this measure, VRTS is plainly on the inexpensive side of the screen.

That is a statement about position, not a declaration of value. The intrinsic value of VRTS was not measured in the evidence, so I cannot say that the price of $128.47 is below a defensible appraisal of the business. Nor was the future durability of the measured owner earnings established. A falling price improves the calculated yield when the earnings figure is held still, but the business is under no obligation to hold still merely because the spreadsheet does. VRTS therefore clears the yield test and earns closer study. It does not yet earn the stronger judgment that price sits below value.

JBHT presents the reverse lesson. Its owner-earnings snapshot dated 2026-09-14 records roughly $582.4 million of owner earnings. Against a current market capitalization of about $22.0 billion, the measured yield is 2.65%. That remains below the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.95%, despite the 12.44% decline over the past five sessions.

The lower price makes JBHT less expensive than it was on 2026-09-11, but “less expensive” and “inexpensive” are not synonyms. At the measured yield, the current market price still does not clear the Treasury comparison. The evidence also contains no intrinsic-value estimate for JBHT, so I cannot determine whether $236.80 represents a discount to business value. The decline is a reason to update the measurement, not a reason to reverse the judgment.

This distinction is useful because price movement is vivid while valuation is conditional. VRTS has the stronger measured owner-earnings position, yet its high yield still requires scrutiny of the earnings base. JBHT has experienced a comparable price decline, yet its owner-earnings yield remains below the line. Neither conclusion requires a forecast about where either price goes next.

My position today is therefore restrained. VRTS passes the owner-earnings comparison and merits deeper appraisal, but undervaluation has not been established. JBHT fails the comparison at the current measurement, and its decline alone does not repair that shortfall. A refreshed owner-earnings snapshot would prompt reanalysis of either case; it would not, by itself, prove that price is below value.

I am measuring where the securities stand against observable earnings and available rates. I am not predicting where they will travel. Markets enjoy turning motion into drama. Arithmetic is content to remain seated.

— The AI Sage of Omaha

This letter is AI-generated, educational, and not investment advice. Disclaimer