NMIH clears the line while FN remains below it
To the readers of MoatLedger:
The market thermometer is unchanged from its previous reading. Across the 141 companies with an owner-earnings snapshot, the median owner-earnings yield stands at 4.44%, below the 10-year Treasury yield of 5.28% and above the 3-month Treasury bill rate of 3.99%. There are 53 companies above the 10-year line, while 44 sit in the margin zone. These readings are identical to the previous published reading, which was measured on 2026-10-05 using prices from 2026-10-02. Stability does not make the comparison more attractive; it merely makes the message harder to blame on a noisy day. The broad sample still offers less owner earnings at the median than the 10-year Treasury offers in yield. That calls for patience, selective attention, and a refusal to confuse a busy price chart with a bargain.
Market thermometer · 2026-10-05 vs 2026-10-02
| Reading | Today | Previous | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Companies with an owner-earnings snapshot | 141 | 141 | +0 |
| Median owner-earnings yield | 4.44% | 4.44% | +0.00 pp |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.28% | 5.28% | +0.00 pp |
| Names above the 10-year line | 53 | 53 | +0 |
| Names in the margin zone | 44 | 44 | +0 |
| 3-month bill (what waiting pays) | 3.99% | 3.99% | +0.00 pp |
The names above the 10-year line remain the useful starting point, not the finishing point. A yield above 5.28% says that the current price is modest enough relative to the measured owner earnings to clear the Treasury comparison. It does not say that those earnings are durable, that capital allocation is sensible, or that the quoted price lies below intrinsic value. Those matters were not measured here.
Names above the 10-year line
| Ticker | Price | OE yield | vs 10-year | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRTS | $133.81 | 21.41% | +16.13 pp | $900M |
| NEWT | $11.18 | 18.60% | +13.32 pp | $328M |
| CASH | $73.96 | 15.23% | +9.95 pp | $1.5B |
| KBH | $45.75 | 14.69% | +9.41 pp | $2.8B |
| NMIH | $38.83 | 13.38% | +8.10 pp | $2.9B |
| BBW | $25.56 | 12.74% | +7.46 pp | $327M |
| MHO | $134.76 | 11.90% | +6.62 pp | $3.5B |
| HIG | $126.05 | 11.28% | +6.00 pp | $34.2B |
| MTH | $63.85 | 10.86% | +5.58 pp | $4.2B |
| GRBK | $66.66 | 10.79% | +5.51 pp | $2.9B |
| LEN | $79.81 | 10.53% | +5.25 pp | $19.2B |
| TOL | $136.61 | 10.45% | +5.17 pp | $12.9B |
53 of the thermometer sample clear the 10-year Treasury (5.28%). OE yield = owner earnings ÷ price-adjusted market cap. Showing the top 12 by yield.
A falling price with a wide measured yield
NMIH stood out over the past five sessions. Its price declined 5.2%, the largest decline in the movers panel, finishing at $38.83. That movement deserves attention because the owner-earnings comparison was already favorable rather than because a falling quotation is inherently meaningful.
The owner-earnings snapshot for NMIH records about $393.4 million against a current market capitalization of roughly $2.94 billion. That produces an owner-earnings yield of 13.38%, comfortably above the 10-year Treasury yield of 5.28%. On this narrow test, NMIH clears the line with room to spare.
The price decline improved the relationship between the quoted price and the recorded owner earnings. It did not, by itself, reveal value. No intrinsic-value estimate was measured, and the evidence does not establish the durability or future direction of owner earnings. I can therefore make a limited judgment: NMIH occupies an attractive measured position against the Treasury benchmark, but the evidence does not permit the stronger claim that $38.83 is below intrinsic value.
That distinction is not pedantry. Price is printed every session. Value usually declines to appear on schedule.
A rising price with a thin measured yield
FN supplied the mirror image. Its price rose 13.1% over the past five sessions, the largest gain in the movers panel, and finished at $463.69. The owner-earnings snapshot records roughly $264.9 million against a current market capitalization of about $16.56 billion. The resulting owner-earnings yield is 1.60%.
That yield sits well below both the 10-year Treasury yield of 5.28% and the 3-month Treasury bill rate of 3.99%. The price action was vigorous; the measured earnings yield was not. At the latest quotation, the evidence asks me to accept substantially less current owner-earnings yield than either Treasury benchmark provides.
This does not prove that FN is worth less than $463.69. An intrinsic-value estimate was not measured, nor were assumptions about future owner earnings. A low present yield could be reconciled with value only through facts about future economics that are absent from this evidence. I will not manufacture them merely because the share price had an energetic run.
The restrained judgment is therefore that FN does not clear the current yield comparison. Its gain over the past five sessions made the measured position less forgiving, but it did not tell me whether the market’s expectations will be fulfilled.
Five-session movers
| Ticker | 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-02 | Change | OE yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| FN | $409.96 → $463.69 | +13.1% | 1.60% |
| UTHR | $485.54 → $541.70 | +11.6% | 3.88% |
| WFCF | $11.58 → $12.73 | +9.9% | 3.32% |
| CDNS | $326.70 → $351.35 | +7.5% | 1.23% |
| CBOE | $253.26 → $271.26 | +7.1% | 4.06% |
| NMIH | $40.97 → $38.83 | -5.2% | 13.38% |
| WSO | $313.22 → $297.47 | -5.0% | 4.08% |
| KBH | $47.88 → $45.75 | -4.5% | 14.69% |
| NVR | $6,267.89 → $5,993.85 | -4.4% | 8.33% |
| A | $175.21 → $167.78 | -4.2% | 2.50% |
Top 5 gainers followed by the 5 largest declines over the trailing sessions.
Position, not prophecy
The useful contrast is not between a decliner and a gainer. It is between what the prices imply when set beside measured owner earnings. NMIH offers a 13.38% owner-earnings yield at $38.83 and clears the 5.28% Treasury line. FN offers a 1.60% owner-earnings yield at $463.69 and remains below it. One passes the present screen; the other does not.
Neither result is a forecast. The thermometer does not predict where prices will travel, and the trailing five-session moves do not reveal where value resides. They show where the quotations have moved. The owner-earnings yields show where the companies stand against an available hurdle. Intrinsic value, earnings durability, and future business performance were not measured.
Sentinel alerts this week
| Date | Ticker | Alert | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | MOD | price_drop | $177.90 |
| 2026-10-02 | HBB | price_drop | $37.13 |
| 2026-10-01 | UWHR | price_drop | $14.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | WFCF | drawdown | $11.05 |
| 2026-09-30 | VRTS | drawdown | $132.32 |
| 2026-09-30 | TXRH | drawdown | $156.34 |
| 2026-09-30 | SFM | margin_zone | $66.35 |
| 2026-09-30 | ROL | drawdown | $30.12 |
| 2026-09-30 | PLMR | margin_zone | $123.29 |
| 2026-09-30 | ODFL | drawdown | $173.84 |
So I end where I began: measuring position, not predicting direction. The median remains below the 10-year line, selectivity remains warranted, and motion remains a poor substitute for evidence. NMIH merits closer measurement because its yield clears the hurdle. FN requires evidence beyond the present snapshot to justify its much thinner yield. That is a statement about today’s relationship between price and owner earnings, not tomorrow’s return.
This letter is AI-generated, educational, and not investment advice. Disclaimer