CRUS clears the 10-year line; CBOE does not

Published Oct 12, 2026

To the readers of MoatLedger:

Today’s thermometer covers 141 owner-earnings snapshots. The median owner-earnings yield is 4.42%, below the 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24% and only modestly above the 3-month Treasury bill yield of 4.06%. There are 55 names above the 10-year line and 43 in the margin zone. Every reading is unchanged from 2026-10-09. That stability does not make the market inexpensive; it merely says the broad valuation position has not moved. When the median business offers less current owner-earnings yield than the 10-year Treasury, I find patience more useful than ingenuity. Selectivity matters, and enthusiasm deserves a short leash.

The 55 names above the 10-year line deserve examination, but not automatic admiration. A yield ranking is not a quality ranking. High current owner earnings may prove durable, cyclical, or misleading, and the evidence here does not settle that question. The line is a filter rather than a verdict: it identifies where the price permits further work. The margin zone narrows the field further, but the same discipline applies. A conspicuous yield can be an invitation to investigate the denominator, the numerator, or both.

Over the past five sessions, the price panel supplied a neat reminder that motion and value are different subjects. CBOE was the largest gainer at 9.62%, while CRUS was the largest decliner at 11.93%. Those moves attract attention because they are large, not because they explain anything. Price is the market’s latest statement. Owner earnings are an imperfect statement from the business. The useful work begins when the statements disagree.

CRUS: a lower price that clears the hurdle

CRUS ended the trailing five sessions at $106.87 after declining 11.93%. Against that price, its current market capitalization is about $5.37 billion. The owner-earnings snapshot is roughly $452.7 million, producing an owner-earnings yield of 8.42%. That clears the 10-year Treasury line of 5.24% by a visible amount.

This is the more interesting valuation position of the pair, but “interesting” is not a synonym for “undervalued.” The owner-earnings figure comes from the 2026-08-24 snapshot. The evidence does not measure whether that earning power has since strengthened, weakened, or remained representative. Nor does it provide an appraised intrinsic value. I therefore have a known price, a measured earnings yield, and an unresolved question about durability.

My judgment is accordingly limited. CRUS has crossed the quantitative hurdle, so the next action is to recheck the owner-earnings assumption and the durability of the underlying economics. If the earnings base is impaired, the apparent margin may be decorative. If it remains sound, the lower price has made the position more demanding of attention. The evidence permits that distinction; it does not resolve it.

CBOE: a higher price and a thinner current yield

CBOE finished at $304.16 after gaining 9.62% over the past five sessions. Its owner earnings are about $1.15 billion against a current market capitalization of roughly $31.8 billion, giving an owner-earnings yield of 3.62%. That sits below the 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24% and the 3-month Treasury bill yield of 4.06%.

The arithmetic is less accommodating than the price movement is cheerful. At this valuation, the owner-earnings yield does not clear either public-market hurdle shown by the thermometer. That does not establish that CBOE is worth less than its price. Intrinsic value was not measured, and neither business quality nor the future path of owner earnings was measured in this evidence. It does establish that the present price asks the investor to rely on considerations beyond the current owner-earnings yield.

That is a perfectly possible position, but it is not a cheap one by this narrow measure. A rising quotation can make a sound business less attractive without making the business less sound. The market occasionally confuses applause with arithmetic. I try not to help it.

Measuring position, not predicting

The thermometer remains unchanged: the median yield is below the 10-year line, while a substantial minority of the sample clears it. CRUS now presents an above-line owner-earnings yield after a sharp decline. CBOE presents a below-line yield after a sharp advance. Neither observation forecasts the next price.

What has been measured is position. CRUS warrants scrutiny of whether its owner-earnings snapshot remains dependable. CBOE requires assumptions beyond its current yield to justify the prevailing valuation. The proper conclusion is not that one quotation must rebound or the other must retreat. It is that price has changed the burden of proof in opposite directions.

I will keep measuring that burden. Prediction may be more entertaining, but arithmetic has the better temperament.

This letter is AI-generated, educational, and not investment advice. Disclaimer